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    Borel--Cantelli lemma

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    Summable event probabilities give finitely many occurrences almost surely; under independence, divergent sums give infinitely many almost surely.Suggest a slogan

    Let \((\Omega,\mcf,P)\) be a probability space, let \((E_n)_{n\geq 1}\) be a sequence of events, and let \(\limsup_n E_n\) be its limit superior.

    1. If \(\sum_{n\geq 1} P(E_n) < \infty\), then \(P(\limsup_n E_n) = 0\).

    2. If the events \(E_n\) are independent and \(\sum_{n\geq 1} P(E_n) = \infty\), then \(P(\limsup_n E_n) = 1\).

    For (1), \(\limsup_n E_n\subseteq\bigcup_{n\geq N}E_n\) for every \(N\), so \(P(\limsup_n E_n)\leq\sum_{n\geq N}P(E_n)\to 0\) as \(N\to\infty\).

    For (2), the complement of \(\limsup_n E_n\) is \(\bigcup_{N\geq 1}\bigcap_{n\geq N}E_n^c\). For \(M\geq N\), independence and \(1-t\leq e^{-t}\) give \[ P\qty{\bigcap_{n=N}^{M}E_n^c} = \prod_{n=N}^{M}(1-P(E_n))\leq\exp\qty{-\sum_{n=N}^{M}P(E_n)}\to 0 \quad (M\to\infty), \] so \(P\qty{\bigcap_{n\geq N}E_n^c} = 0\) for every \(N\), and the countable union of these null events is null.

    What is the Borel-Cantelli lemma?